Texas State — 2026 schedule & results record 4-3 · model's picks 6-1 so far
Proj rating 1.1 · SOS -0.8 · Mean wins 6.0 · Picked 7-4 · Vegas 6.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Texas | away | L 7–59 | +29.5 ✗ | -20.3 | 12% | L ✓ |
Texas -29.5 · WIN +27 |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | UTSA | home | L 26–31 | -1.5 ✗ | +2.7 | 57% | W ✗ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | North Texas | home | W 49–35 | -3 ✓ | +0.7 | 51% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Incarnate Word | home | W 63–10 | -30.5 ✓ | +31.7 | 97% | W ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | San Diego State | away | L 29–31 | -9.75 ✗ | -8.1 | 32% | L ✓ | |
| 7 | Thu 10/15 | Colorado State | home | W 66–27 | -15.25 ✓ | +14.7 | 81% | W ✓ |
Texas State -13 · WIN +17 |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Utah State | home | W 20–17 | -14.25 ✗ | +6.6 | 66% | W ✓ | |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | Boise State | away | — | +11.25 | -5.0 | 39% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Oregon State | away | — | — | +3.5 | 58% | W | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Fresno State | home | — | — | +4.9 | 61% | W | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Washington State | home | — | — | -3.2 | 42% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.